Title: EMERGENT CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGIA FROM IMPERFECT CONNECTED REFUGES

Abstract: As coral reef habitats fragment due to climate change and coastal development, resilient populations and their connectivity become critical for metapopulation persistence. Consequently, there has been an increased scientific focus on coral reef refuges – both natural environments removed from stress, and protected or curated environments such as marine protected areas (MPAs). Although there has been considerable research into the effects of MPAs on local persistence, our understanding of how metapopulation persistence – the ability of an interconnected network of populations to avoid extinction – emerges from the interactions of perturbed, natural refuge and protected environments is still poor. We developed a novel patch occupancy model to evaluate the effects of differential habitat resilience on metapopulation persistence. Habitats were assigned vulnerabilities from a range of beta distributions, which more closely reflects reality. A key finding suggests that refuges need not be invulnerable to perturbation to support metapopulation resilience, so long as habitats remain sufficiently connected. Resilience and connectivity can interact to produce effective refugia from perturbed environments. We thus propose that metapopulation refugia is rarely composed of a few isolated resistant populations, but is instead an emergent property of connected populations with diverse characteristics.

Authors: Holstein DM, Smith TB

Presentation: Oral

Session: 28A

Date: 06/20/16

Time: 11:30

Location: 308 A/B

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